TY - JOUR
T1 - Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time
AU - MCC Collaborators∗
AU - Hundessa, Samuel
AU - Huang, Wenzhong
AU - Zhao, Qi
AU - Wu, Yao
AU - Wen, Bo
AU - Alahmad, Barrak
AU - Armstrong, Ben
AU - Gasparrini, Antonio
AU - Sera, Francesco
AU - Tong, Shilu
AU - Madureira, Joana
AU - Kyselý, Jan
AU - Schwartz, Joel
AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
AU - Hales, Simon
AU - Johnson, Amanda
AU - Li, Shanshan
AU - Guo, Yuming
AU - Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.
AU - Ryti, Niilo
AU - Urban, Aleš
AU - Tobias, Aurelio
AU - Royé, Dominic
AU - Lavigne, Eric
AU - Ragettli, Martina S.
AU - Åström, Christofer
AU - Raz, Raanan
AU - Pascal, Mathilde
AU - Kan, Haidong
AU - Goodman, Patrick
AU - Zeka, Ariana
AU - Hashizume, Masahiro
AU - Diaz, Magali Hurtado
AU - Seposo, Xerxes
AU - Nunes, Baltazar
AU - Kim, Ho
AU - Lee, Whanhee
AU - Íñiguez, Carmen
AU - Guo, Yue Leon
AU - Pan, Shih Chun
AU - Zanobetti, Antonella
AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc
AU - Van Dung, Do
AU - Schneider, Alexandra
AU - Entezari, Alireza
AU - Analitis, Antonis
AU - Forsberg, Bertil
AU - Ameling, Caroline
AU - Houthuijs, Danny
AU - Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 American College of Cardiology Foundation
PY - 2024/6/11
Y1 - 2024/6/11
N2 - Background: The association between nonoptimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality risk is recognized. However, a comprehensive global assessment of this burden is lacking. Objectives: The goal of this study was to assess global cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and investigate spatiotemporal trends. Methods: Using daily cardiovascular deaths and temperature data from 32 countries, a 3-stage analytical approach was applied. First, location-specific temperature–mortality associations were estimated, considering nonlinearity and delayed effects. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was developed between location-specific effect estimates and 5 meta-predictors. Third, cardiovascular deaths associated with nonoptimal, cold, and hot temperatures for each global grid (55 km × 55 km resolution) were estimated, and temporal trends from 2000 to 2019 were explored. Results: Globally, 1,801,513 (95% empirical CI: 1,526,632-2,202,831) annual cardiovascular deaths were associated with nonoptimal temperatures, constituting 8.86% (95% empirical CI: 7.51%-12.32%) of total cardiovascular mortality corresponding to 26 deaths per 100,000 population. Cold-related deaths accounted for 8.20% (95% empirical CI: 6.74%-11.57%), whereas heat-related deaths accounted for 0.66% (95% empirical CI: 0.49%-0.98%). The mortality burden varied significantly across regions, with the highest excess mortality rates observed in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. From 2000 to 2019, cold-related excess death ratios decreased, while heat-related ratios increased, resulting in an overall decline in temperature-related deaths. Southeastern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania observed the greatest reduction, while Southern Asia experienced an increase. The Americas and several regions in Asia and Europe displayed fluctuating temporal patterns. Conclusions: Nonoptimal temperatures substantially contribute to cardiovascular mortality, with heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. Effective mitigation and adaptation strategies are crucial, especially given the increasing heat-related cardiovascular deaths amid climate change.
AB - Background: The association between nonoptimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality risk is recognized. However, a comprehensive global assessment of this burden is lacking. Objectives: The goal of this study was to assess global cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and investigate spatiotemporal trends. Methods: Using daily cardiovascular deaths and temperature data from 32 countries, a 3-stage analytical approach was applied. First, location-specific temperature–mortality associations were estimated, considering nonlinearity and delayed effects. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was developed between location-specific effect estimates and 5 meta-predictors. Third, cardiovascular deaths associated with nonoptimal, cold, and hot temperatures for each global grid (55 km × 55 km resolution) were estimated, and temporal trends from 2000 to 2019 were explored. Results: Globally, 1,801,513 (95% empirical CI: 1,526,632-2,202,831) annual cardiovascular deaths were associated with nonoptimal temperatures, constituting 8.86% (95% empirical CI: 7.51%-12.32%) of total cardiovascular mortality corresponding to 26 deaths per 100,000 population. Cold-related deaths accounted for 8.20% (95% empirical CI: 6.74%-11.57%), whereas heat-related deaths accounted for 0.66% (95% empirical CI: 0.49%-0.98%). The mortality burden varied significantly across regions, with the highest excess mortality rates observed in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. From 2000 to 2019, cold-related excess death ratios decreased, while heat-related ratios increased, resulting in an overall decline in temperature-related deaths. Southeastern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania observed the greatest reduction, while Southern Asia experienced an increase. The Americas and several regions in Asia and Europe displayed fluctuating temporal patterns. Conclusions: Nonoptimal temperatures substantially contribute to cardiovascular mortality, with heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. Effective mitigation and adaptation strategies are crucial, especially given the increasing heat-related cardiovascular deaths amid climate change.
KW - Global Burden of Disease
KW - cardiovascular death
KW - death ratio
KW - excess death
KW - nonoptimal temperatures
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85194106563
U2 - 10.1016/j.jacc.2024.03.425
DO - 10.1016/j.jacc.2024.03.425
M3 - Artículo
C2 - 38839202
AN - SCOPUS:85194106563
SN - 0735-1097
VL - 83
SP - 2276
EP - 2287
JO - Journal of the American College of Cardiology
JF - Journal of the American College of Cardiology
IS - 23
ER -
SDG 13 Climate Action