Intermediate hyperglycaemia and 10-year mortality in resource-constrained settings: the PERU MIGRANT Study

Aim: To determine whether intermediate hyperglycaemia, defined by fasting plasma glucose and HbA_1c criteria, is associated with mortality in a 10-year cohort of people in a Latin American country. Methods: Analysis of the PERU MIGRANT Study was conducted in three different population groups (rural, rural-to-urban migrant, and urban). The baseline assessment was conducted in 2007/2008, with follow-up assessment in 2018. The outcome was all-cause mortality, and the exposure was intermediate hyperglycaemia, using three definitions: (1) impaired fasting glucose, defined according to American Diabetes Association criteria [fasting plasma glucose 5.6–6.9 mmol/l (100–125 mg/dl)]; (2) intermediate hyperglycaemia defined according to American Diabetes Association criteria [HbA_1c levels 39–46 mmol/mol (5.7–6.4%)]; and (3) intermediate hyperglycaemia defined according to the International Expert Committee criteria [HbA_1c levels 42–46 mmol/mol (6.0–6.4%)]. Crude and adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Results: At baseline, the mean (sd) age of the study population was 47.8 (11.9) years and 52.5% of the cohort were women. The study cohort was divided into population groups as follows: 207 people (20.0%) in the rural population group, 583 (59.7%) in the rural-to-urban migrant group and 198 (20.3%) in the urban population group. The prevalence of intermediate hyperglycaemia was: 6%, 12.9% and 38.5% according to the American Diabetes Association impaired fasting glucose definition, the International Expert Committee HbA_1c-based definition and the American Diabetes Association HbA_1c-based definition, respectively, and the mortality rate after 10 years was 63/976 (7%). Intermediate hyperglycaemia was associated with all-cause mortality using the HbA_1c-based definitions in the crude models [hazard ratios 2.82 (95% CI 1.59–4.99) according to the American Diabetes Association and 2.92 (95% CI 1.62–5.28) according to the International Expert Committee], whereas American Diabetes Association-defined impaired fasting glucose was not [hazard ratio 0.84 (95% CI 0.26–2.68)]. In the adjusted model, however, only the American Diabetes Association HbA_1c-based definition was associated with all-cause mortality [hazard ratio 1.91 (95% CI 1.03–3.53)], whereas the International Expert Committee HbA_1c-based and American Diabetes Association impaired fasting glucose-based definitions were not [hazard ratios 1.42 (95% CI 0.75–2.68) and 1.09 (95% CI 0.33–3.63), respectively]. Conclusions: Intermediate hyperglycaemia defined using the American Diabetes Association HbA_1c criteria was associated with an elevated mortality rate after 10 years in a cohort from Peru. HbA_1c appears to be a factor associated with mortality in this Peruvian population.