Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

Gongbo Chen; Yuming Guo; Xu Yue; Shilu Tong; Antonio Gasparrini; Michelle L. Bell; Ben Armstrong; Joel Schwartz; Jouni J.K. Jaakkola; Antonella Zanobetti; Eric Lavigne; Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva; Haidong Kan; Dominic Royé; Ai Milojevic; Ala Overcenco; Aleš Urban; Alexandra Schneider; Alireza Entezari; Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera; Ariana Zeka; Aurelio Tobias; Baltazar Nunes; Barrak Alahmad; Bertil Forsberg; Shih Chun Pan; Carmen Íñiguez; Caroline Ameling; César De la Cruz Valencia; Christofer Åström; Danny Houthuijs; Do Van Dung; Evangelia Samoli; Fatemeh Mayvaneh; Francesco Sera; Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar; Yadong Lei; Hans Orru; Ho Kim; Iulian Horia Holobaca; Jan Kyselý; João Paulo Teixeira; Joana Madureira; Klea Katsouyanni; Magali Hurtado-Díaz; Marek Maasikmets; Martina S. Ragettli; Masahiro Hashizume; Massimo Stafoggia; Mathilde Pascal; Matteo Scortichini; Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho; Nicolás Valdés Ortega; Niilo R.I. Ryti; Noah Scovronick; Patricia Matus; Patrick Goodman; Rebecca M. Garland; Rosana Abrutzky; Samuel Osorio Garcia; Shilpa Rao; Simona Fratianni; Tran Ngoc Dang; Valentina Colistro; Veronika Huber; Whanhee Lee; Xerxes Seposo; Yasushi Honda; Yue Leon Guo; Tingting Ye; Wenhua Yu; Michael J. Abramson; Jonathan M. Samet; Shanshan Li

doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00200-X

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM_2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

Gongbo Chen
, Yuming Guo
, Xu Yue
, Shilu Tong
, Antonio Gasparrini
, Michelle L. Bell
, Ben Armstrong
, Joel Schwartz
, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola
, Antonella Zanobetti
, Eric Lavigne
, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva
, Haidong Kan
, Dominic Royé
, Ai Milojevic
, Ala Overcenco
, Aleš Urban
, Alexandra Schneider
, Alireza Entezari
, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera

Ariana Zeka, Aurelio Tobias, Baltazar Nunes, Barrak Alahmad, Bertil Forsberg, Shih Chun Pan, Carmen Íñiguez, Caroline Ameling, César De la Cruz Valencia, Christofer Åström, Danny Houthuijs, Do Van Dung, Evangelia Samoli, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Francesco Sera, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar, Yadong Lei, Hans Orru, Ho Kim, Iulian Horia Holobaca, Jan Kyselý, João Paulo Teixeira, Joana Madureira, Klea Katsouyanni, Magali Hurtado-Díaz, Marek Maasikmets, Martina S. Ragettli, Masahiro Hashizume, Massimo Stafoggia, Mathilde Pascal, Matteo Scortichini, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Niilo R.I. Ryti, Noah Scovronick, Patricia Matus, Patrick Goodman, Rebecca M. Garland, Rosana Abrutzky, Samuel Osorio Garcia, Shilpa Rao, Simona Fratianni, Tran Ngoc Dang, Valentina Colistro, Veronika Huber, Whanhee Lee, Xerxes Seposo, Yasushi Honda, Yue Leon Guo, Tingting Ye, Wenhua Yu, Michael J. Abramson, Jonathan M. Samet, Shanshan Li

School of Public Health and Administration

Sun Yat Sen University
Monash University
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine
Anhui Medical University
Nanjing Medical University
Queensland University of Technology
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Yale University
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
University of Oulu
University of Ottawa
Health Canada
University of São Paulo
Fudan University
Universidad de Santiago de Compostela
National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health
Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
German Research Center for Environmental Health
Hakim Sabzevari University
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine
Brunel University London
Spanish Council for Scientific Research
Nagasaki University
Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge
Umeå University
National Health Research Institutes Taiwan
University of Valencia
Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health
National Institute of Public Health
University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City
University of Athens
University of Florence
Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences
University of Tartu
Seoul National University
Babes Bolyai University
National Institute of Health
University of Porto
Estonian Environmental Research Centre
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Swiss TPH
University of Basel
Graduate School of Medicine
Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service
Santé Publique France
Universidad de los Andes, Chile
Rollins School of Public Health
Technological University Dublin
Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)
University of Pretoria
North-West University
Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani
Norwegian Institute of Public Health
University of Torino
University of the Republic
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Universidad Pablo de Olavide, de Sevilla
University of Tsukuba
National Taiwan University Hospital
Colorado School of Public Health

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

294 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM_2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM_2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. Methods: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000–16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM_2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure was calculated. Findings: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m³ increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0–2 days) of wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016–1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012–1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013–1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48–0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43–0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50–0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure during the study period. Interpretation: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM_2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. Funding: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	e579-e587
Journal	The Lancet Planetary Health
Volume	5
Issue number	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00200-X
State	Published - Sep 2021

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being
SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities

Access to Document

10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00200-X

Cite this

Chen, G., Guo, Y., Yue, X., Tong, S., Gasparrini, A., Bell, M. L., Armstrong, B., Schwartz, J., Jaakkola, J. J. K., Zanobetti, A., Lavigne, E., Nascimento Saldiva, P. H., Kan, H., Royé, D., Milojevic, A., Overcenco, A., Urban, A., Schneider, A., Entezari, A., ... Li, S. (2021). Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM_2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations. The Lancet Planetary Health, 5(9), e579-e587. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00200-X

@article{f46103a65f0e4b37a2aa3882c4af406b,

title = "Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations",

abstract = "Background: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. Methods: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000–16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. Findings: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0–2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95\% CI 1·016–1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012–1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013–1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62\% (95\% CI 0·48–0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55\% (0·43–0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64\% (0·50–0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period. Interpretation: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. Funding: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health \& Medical Research Council.",

author = "Gongbo Chen and Yuming Guo and Xu Yue and Shilu Tong and Antonio Gasparrini and Bell, \{Michelle L.\} and Ben Armstrong and Joel Schwartz and Jaakkola, \{Jouni J.K.\} and Antonella Zanobetti and Eric Lavigne and \{Nascimento Saldiva\}, \{Paulo Hilario\} and Haidong Kan and Dominic Roy{\'e} and Ai Milojevic and Ala Overcenco and Ale{\v s} Urban and Alexandra Schneider and Alireza Entezari and Vicedo-Cabrera, \{Ana Maria\} and Ariana Zeka and Aurelio Tobias and Baltazar Nunes and Barrak Alahmad and Bertil Forsberg and Pan, \{Shih Chun\} and Carmen {\'I}{\~n}iguez and Caroline Ameling and \{De la Cruz Valencia\}, C{\'e}sar and Christofer {\AA}str{\"o}m and Danny Houthuijs and \{Van Dung\}, Do and Evangelia Samoli and Fatemeh Mayvaneh and Francesco Sera and Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar and Yadong Lei and Hans Orru and Ho Kim and Holobaca, \{Iulian Horia\} and Jan Kysel{\'y} and Teixeira, \{Jo{\~a}o Paulo\} and Joana Madureira and Klea Katsouyanni and Magali Hurtado-D{\'i}az and Marek Maasikmets and Ragettli, \{Martina S.\} and Masahiro Hashizume and Massimo Stafoggia and Mathilde Pascal and Matteo Scortichini and \{de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Co{\^e}lho\}, Micheline and \{Vald{\'e}s Ortega\}, Nicol{\'a}s and Ryti, \{Niilo R.I.\} and Noah Scovronick and Patricia Matus and Patrick Goodman and Garland, \{Rebecca M.\} and Rosana Abrutzky and Garcia, \{Samuel Osorio\} and Shilpa Rao and Simona Fratianni and Dang, \{Tran Ngoc\} and Valentina Colistro and Veronika Huber and Whanhee Lee and Xerxes Seposo and Yasushi Honda and Guo, \{Yue Leon\} and Tingting Ye and Wenhua Yu and Abramson, \{Michael J.\} and Samet, \{Jonathan M.\} and Shanshan Li",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license",

year = "2021",

month = sep,

doi = "10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00200-X",

language = "Ingl{\'e}s",

volume = "5",

pages = "e579--e587",

journal = "The Lancet Planetary Health",

issn = "2542-5196",

number = "9",

}

Chen, G, Guo, Y, Yue, X, Tong, S, Gasparrini, A, Bell, ML, Armstrong, B, Schwartz, J, Jaakkola, JJK, Zanobetti, A, Lavigne, E, Nascimento Saldiva, PH, Kan, H, Royé, D, Milojevic, A, Overcenco, A, Urban, A, Schneider, A, Entezari, A, Vicedo-Cabrera, AM, Zeka, A, Tobias, A, Nunes, B, Alahmad, B, Forsberg, B, Pan, SC, Íñiguez, C, Ameling, C, De la Cruz Valencia, C, Åström, C, Houthuijs, D, Van Dung, D, Samoli, E, Mayvaneh, F, Sera, F, Carrasco-Escobar, G, Lei, Y, Orru, H, Kim, H, Holobaca, IH, Kyselý, J, Teixeira, JP, Madureira, J, Katsouyanni, K, Hurtado-Díaz, M, Maasikmets, M, Ragettli, MS, Hashizume, M, Stafoggia, M, Pascal, M, Scortichini, M, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, M, Valdés Ortega, N, Ryti, NRI, Scovronick, N, Matus, P, Goodman, P, Garland, RM, Abrutzky, R, Garcia, SO, Rao, S, Fratianni, S, Dang, TN, Colistro, V, Huber, V, Lee, W, Seposo, X, Honda, Y, Guo, YL, Ye, T, Yu, W, Abramson, MJ, Samet, JM & Li, S 2021, 'Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM_2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations', The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, no. 9, pp. e579-e587. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00200-X

TY - JOUR

T1 - Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution

T2 - a global time series study in 749 locations

AU - Chen, Gongbo

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Yue, Xu

AU - Tong, Shilu

AU - Gasparrini, Antonio

AU - Bell, Michelle L.

AU - Armstrong, Ben

AU - Schwartz, Joel

AU - Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.

AU - Zanobetti, Antonella

AU - Lavigne, Eric

AU - Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario

AU - Kan, Haidong

AU - Royé, Dominic

AU - Milojevic, Ai

AU - Overcenco, Ala

AU - Urban, Aleš

AU - Schneider, Alexandra

AU - Entezari, Alireza

AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria

AU - Zeka, Ariana

AU - Tobias, Aurelio

AU - Nunes, Baltazar

AU - Alahmad, Barrak

AU - Forsberg, Bertil

AU - Pan, Shih Chun

AU - Íñiguez, Carmen

AU - Ameling, Caroline

AU - De la Cruz Valencia, César

AU - Åström, Christofer

AU - Houthuijs, Danny

AU - Van Dung, Do

AU - Samoli, Evangelia

AU - Mayvaneh, Fatemeh

AU - Sera, Francesco

AU - Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel

AU - Lei, Yadong

AU - Orru, Hans

AU - Kim, Ho

AU - Holobaca, Iulian Horia

AU - Kyselý, Jan

AU - Teixeira, João Paulo

AU - Madureira, Joana

AU - Katsouyanni, Klea

AU - Hurtado-Díaz, Magali

AU - Maasikmets, Marek

AU - Ragettli, Martina S.

AU - Hashizume, Masahiro

AU - Stafoggia, Massimo

AU - Pascal, Mathilde

AU - Scortichini, Matteo

AU - de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, Micheline

AU - Valdés Ortega, Nicolás

AU - Ryti, Niilo R.I.

AU - Scovronick, Noah

AU - Matus, Patricia

AU - Goodman, Patrick

AU - Garland, Rebecca M.

AU - Abrutzky, Rosana

AU - Garcia, Samuel Osorio

AU - Rao, Shilpa

AU - Fratianni, Simona

AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc

AU - Colistro, Valentina

AU - Huber, Veronika

AU - Lee, Whanhee

AU - Seposo, Xerxes

AU - Honda, Yasushi

AU - Guo, Yue Leon

AU - Ye, Tingting

AU - Yu, Wenhua

AU - Abramson, Michael J.

AU - Samet, Jonathan M.

AU - Li, Shanshan

PY - 2021/9

Y1 - 2021/9

N2 - Background: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. Methods: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000–16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. Findings: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0–2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016–1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012–1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013–1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48–0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43–0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50–0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period. Interpretation: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. Funding: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

AB - Background: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. Methods: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000–16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. Findings: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0–2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016–1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012–1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013–1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48–0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43–0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50–0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period. Interpretation: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. Funding: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85117543568

U2 - 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00200-X

DO - 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00200-X

M3 - Artículo

C2 - 34508679

AN - SCOPUS:85117543568

SN - 2542-5196

VL - 5

SP - e579-e587

JO - The Lancet Planetary Health

JF - The Lancet Planetary Health

IS - 9

ER -

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM_2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

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