The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera; N. Scovronick; F. Sera; D. Royé; R. Schneider; A. Tobias; C. Astrom; Y. Guo; Y. Honda; D. M. Hondula; R. Abrutzky; S. Tong; M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho; P. H.Nascimento Saldiva; E. Lavigne; P. Matus Correa; N. Valdes Ortega; H. Kan; S. Osorio; J. Kyselý; A. Urban; H. Orru; E. Indermitte; J. J.K. Jaakkola; N. Ryti; M. Pascal; A. Schneider; K. Katsouyanni; E. Samoli; F. Mayvaneh; A. Entezari; P. Goodman; A. Zeka; P. Michelozzi; F. de’Donato; M. Hashizume; B. Alahmad; M. Hurtado Diaz; C. De La Cruz Valencia; A. Overcenco; D. Houthuijs; C. Ameling; S. Rao; F. Di Ruscio; G. Carrasco-Escobar; X. Seposo; S. Silva; J. Madureira; I. H. Holobaca; S. Fratianni; F. Acquaotta; H. Kim; W. Lee; C. Iniguez; B. Forsberg; M. S. Ragettli; Y. L.L. Guo; B. Y. Chen; S. Li; B. Armstrong; A. Aleman; A. Zanobetti; J. Schwartz; T. N. Dang; D. V. Dung; N. Gillett; A. Haines; M. Mengel; V. Huber; A. Gasparrini

doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera
, N. Scovronick
, F. Sera
, D. Royé
, R. Schneider
, A. Tobias
, C. Astrom
, Y. Guo
, Y. Honda
, D. M. Hondula
, R. Abrutzky
, S. Tong
, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho
, P. H.Nascimento Saldiva
, E. Lavigne
, P. Matus Correa
, N. Valdes Ortega
, H. Kan
, S. Osorio
, J. Kyselý

A. Urban, H. Orru, E. Indermitte, J. J.K. Jaakkola, N. Ryti, M. Pascal, A. Schneider, K. Katsouyanni, E. Samoli, F. Mayvaneh, A. Entezari, P. Goodman, A. Zeka, P. Michelozzi, F. de’Donato, M. Hashizume, B. Alahmad, M. Hurtado Diaz, C. De La Cruz Valencia, A. Overcenco, D. Houthuijs, C. Ameling, S. Rao, F. Di Ruscio, G. Carrasco-Escobar, X. Seposo, S. Silva, J. Madureira, I. H. Holobaca, S. Fratianni, F. Acquaotta, H. Kim, W. Lee, C. Iniguez, B. Forsberg, M. S. Ragettli, Y. L.L. Guo, B. Y. Chen, S. Li, B. Armstrong, A. Aleman, A. Zanobetti, J. Schwartz, T. N. Dang, D. V. Dung, N. Gillett, A. Haines, M. Mengel, V. Huber, A. Gasparrini

School of Public Health and Administration

Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine
Universität Bern
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Rollins School of Public Health
University of Florence
Universidad de Santiago de Compostela
Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Publica
European Space Agency (ESA-ESRIN)
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Spanish Council for Scientific Research
Nagasaki University
Umeå University
Monash University
University of Tsukuba
Arizona State University
Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani
Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine
Anhui Medical University
Queensland University of Technology
Nanjing Medical University
University of São Paulo
Health Canada
University of Ottawa
Universidad de los Andes, Chile
Fudan University
Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
University of Tartu
University of Oulu
Finnish Meteorological Institute
Santé Publique France
German Research Center for Environmental Health
Athens University Medical School
Imperial College London
Hakim Sabzevari University
Technological University Dublin
Brunel University London
Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service
Graduate School of Medicine
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
National Institute of Public Health
National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health
Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health
Norwegian Institute of Public Health
Graduate School of Engineering
Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge
National Institute of Health
University of Porto
Babes Bolyai University
University of Torino
Seoul National University
University of Valencia
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Swiss TPH
University of Basel
National Taiwan University
National Health Research Institutes Taiwan
University of the Republic
University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Universidad Pablo de Olavide, de Sevilla

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

982 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	492-500
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	11
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x
State	Published - Jun 2021

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SDG 13 Climate Action

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10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

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Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Scovronick, N., Sera, F., Royé, D., Schneider, R., Tobias, A., Astrom, C., Guo, Y., Honda, Y., Hondula, D. M., Abrutzky, R., Tong, S., Coelho, M. D. S. Z. S., Saldiva, P. H. N., Lavigne, E., Correa, P. M., Ortega, N. V., Kan, H., Osorio, S., ... Gasparrini, A. (2021). The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change. Nature Climate Change, 11(6), 492-500. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

@article{a4ffd9ace8ef48e893f79ae73e054157,

title = "The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change",

abstract = "Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0\% (range 20.5–76.3\%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.",

author = "Vicedo-Cabrera, \{A. M.\} and N. Scovronick and F. Sera and D. Roy{\'e} and R. Schneider and A. Tobias and C. Astrom and Y. Guo and Y. Honda and Hondula, \{D. M.\} and R. Abrutzky and S. Tong and Coelho, \{M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio\} and Saldiva, \{P. H.Nascimento\} and E. Lavigne and Correa, \{P. Matus\} and Ortega, \{N. Valdes\} and H. Kan and S. Osorio and J. Kysel{\'y} and A. Urban and H. Orru and E. Indermitte and Jaakkola, \{J. J.K.\} and N. Ryti and M. Pascal and A. Schneider and K. Katsouyanni and E. Samoli and F. Mayvaneh and A. Entezari and P. Goodman and A. Zeka and P. Michelozzi and F. de{\textquoteright}Donato and M. Hashizume and B. Alahmad and Diaz, \{M. Hurtado\} and Valencia, \{C. De La Cruz\} and A. Overcenco and D. Houthuijs and C. Ameling and S. Rao and \{Di Ruscio\}, F. and G. Carrasco-Escobar and X. Seposo and S. Silva and J. Madureira and Holobaca, \{I. H.\} and S. Fratianni and F. Acquaotta and H. Kim and W. Lee and C. Iniguez and B. Forsberg and Ragettli, \{M. S.\} and Guo, \{Y. L.L.\} and Chen, \{B. Y.\} and S. Li and B. Armstrong and A. Aleman and A. Zanobetti and J. Schwartz and Dang, \{T. N.\} and Dung, \{D. V.\} and N. Gillett and A. Haines and M. Mengel and V. Huber and A. Gasparrini",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.",

year = "2021",

month = jun,

doi = "10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x",

language = "Ingl{\'e}s",

volume = "11",

pages = "492--500",

journal = "Nature Climate Change",

issn = "1758-678X",

number = "6",

}

Vicedo-Cabrera, AM, Scovronick, N, Sera, F, Royé, D, Schneider, R, Tobias, A, Astrom, C, Guo, Y, Honda, Y, Hondula, DM, Abrutzky, R, Tong, S, Coelho, MDSZS, Saldiva, PHN, Lavigne, E, Correa, PM, Ortega, NV, Kan, H, Osorio, S, Kyselý, J, Urban, A, Orru, H, Indermitte, E, Jaakkola, JJK, Ryti, N, Pascal, M, Schneider, A, Katsouyanni, K, Samoli, E, Mayvaneh, F, Entezari, A, Goodman, P, Zeka, A, Michelozzi, P, de’Donato, F, Hashizume, M, Alahmad, B, Diaz, MH, Valencia, CDLC, Overcenco, A, Houthuijs, D, Ameling, C, Rao, S, Di Ruscio, F, Carrasco-Escobar, G, Seposo, X, Silva, S, Madureira, J, Holobaca, IH, Fratianni, S, Acquaotta, F, Kim, H, Lee, W, Iniguez, C, Forsberg, B, Ragettli, MS, Guo, YLL, Chen, BY, Li, S, Armstrong, B, Aleman, A, Zanobetti, A, Schwartz, J, Dang, TN, Dung, DV, Gillett, N, Haines, A, Mengel, M, Huber, V & Gasparrini, A 2021, 'The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change', Nature Climate Change, vol. 11, no. 6, pp. 492-500. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

TY - JOUR

T1 - The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.

AU - Scovronick, N.

AU - Sera, F.

AU - Royé, D.

AU - Schneider, R.

AU - Tobias, A.

AU - Astrom, C.

AU - Guo, Y.

AU - Honda, Y.

AU - Hondula, D. M.

AU - Abrutzky, R.

AU - Tong, S.

AU - Coelho, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio

AU - Saldiva, P. H.Nascimento

AU - Lavigne, E.

AU - Correa, P. Matus

AU - Ortega, N. Valdes

AU - Kan, H.

AU - Osorio, S.

AU - Kyselý, J.

AU - Urban, A.

AU - Orru, H.

AU - Indermitte, E.

AU - Jaakkola, J. J.K.

AU - Ryti, N.

AU - Pascal, M.

AU - Schneider, A.

AU - Katsouyanni, K.

AU - Samoli, E.

AU - Mayvaneh, F.

AU - Entezari, A.

AU - Goodman, P.

AU - Zeka, A.

AU - Michelozzi, P.

AU - de’Donato, F.

AU - Hashizume, M.

AU - Alahmad, B.

AU - Diaz, M. Hurtado

AU - Valencia, C. De La Cruz

AU - Overcenco, A.

AU - Houthuijs, D.

AU - Ameling, C.

AU - Rao, S.

AU - Di Ruscio, F.

AU - Carrasco-Escobar, G.

AU - Seposo, X.

AU - Silva, S.

AU - Madureira, J.

AU - Holobaca, I. H.

AU - Fratianni, S.

AU - Acquaotta, F.

AU - Kim, H.

AU - Lee, W.

AU - Iniguez, C.

AU - Forsberg, B.

AU - Ragettli, M. S.

AU - Guo, Y. L.L.

AU - Chen, B. Y.

AU - Li, S.

AU - Armstrong, B.

AU - Aleman, A.

AU - Zanobetti, A.

AU - Schwartz, J.

AU - Dang, T. N.

AU - Dung, D. V.

AU - Gillett, N.

AU - Haines, A.

AU - Mengel, M.

AU - Huber, V.

AU - Gasparrini, A.

PY - 2021/6

Y1 - 2021/6

N2 - Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

AB - Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85107197406

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

DO - 10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

M3 - Artículo

AN - SCOPUS:85107197406

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 11

SP - 492

EP - 500

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 6

ER -

The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

Abstract

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