DISEASE BURDEN FROM TOBACCO CONSUMPTION IN PERU AND THE PROJECTED EFFECT OF STRENGTHENING CONTROL MEASURES: A MODELING STUDY

Objectives. To estimate the economic burden and disease burden associated with tobacco use in Peru and the projected effect of strengthening specific tobacco control measures. Materials and methods. We used a Markov microsimulation model to assess smoking-attributable mortality, disease events, economic costs, and projected benefits over ten years, considering the implementation of measures such as plain packaging, full enforcement of smoke-free laws, a complete ban on tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship, and increased cigarette taxes. Results. Each year in Peru, approximately 22,350 deaths and 126,000 disease events are attributable to tobacco use, accounting for 19% of all deaths from heart disease, 18% of deaths from stroke, and 515,768 years of life lost. In addition, approximately 1.28% of gross domestic product is lost annually due to smoking. Over ten years, the implementation of plain packaging could prevent 6,218 deaths, 31,700 events, and save 576 million USD. Full compliance with smoke-free places would prevent 4,982 deaths, 25,400 events, and save 461 million USD. Banning advertising, promotion, and sponsorship could prevent 8,767 deaths, 44,700 events, and save 812 million USD. Increasing cigarette prices by 50% could prevent 20,400 deaths, 658,400 healthy life years lost, and an economic benefit of more than 3.3 billion USD. Conclusions. The economic and disease burden of tobacco use in Peru is significant. Greater efforts to control tobacco would significantly reduce this burden.